Causabon’s Predictions
Sharon Astyk’s called 2008 pretty well and, with a couple of quibbles, I agree with her 2009 predictions. Sadly.
I think that she might be underestimating a few things:
- The ability of the US government to pull rabbits out of the hat. When you control the money presses and regulate the financial markets, you can do quite a bit. For a while longer.
- The interest of foreign governments in keeping us afloat until they can untangle themselves from dollar investments.
- The ability of banks and industry to manipulate government policy to their liking in the name of “crisis”.
- The “new coach” mentality changing consumer sentiment. How long Obama has before people lose hope is the big question here.
I think that the big wildcards are on the foreign policy front and their impact on oil, trade, and sentiment:
- What does China do with an economically, politically, and miliarily weakened US? It also dries up a source of revenue that’s fuelled their growth over the past decades.
- What does Russia do in desperation when they don’t have soaring oil revenues to compensate for “holes” in their system?
- What happens in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran?
That said, pretty good job on her part. Sadly. I hope I can buy some arable land before it’s too late…
