Keep an eye on Russia.

It’s been high times for the past several years with the coincident humbling of its former superpower rival and the rise of oil prices. The New Russia has been flexing its international muscle — economic, diplomatic, and military — and feeling pride about reasserting itself in a bid to regain lost glory.

Now, the fall of oil, combined with Russia’s historical instincts to stir trouble abroad when there’s trouble at home indicates a need for caution.

The precipitous decline of oil and linked weakness of the Ruble creates slippery path for Putin and Medvedev. As the WSJ points out today in “Oil’s Crash Stirs Unrest In Russia As Slump Hits Home”:

The prospect of further unrest poses what could be the biggest challenge yet to the authoritarian system built by Mr. Putin. It also foists a stark choice on the Kremlin: to stifle dissent, or to placate protesters to provide some kind of pressure outlet. For now, the Kremlin has decided on a mixture of both. But the government’s options may narrow as its financial reserves shrink.

New Russian drinking buddy Venezuela is facing similar pressures. Will they collude to cause trouble for a shaken and weakened US and a new, “untested” commander-in-chief in the coming months?

Beware. History is filled with examples of totalitarians demonizing rivals and launching foreign adventures when there’s trouble at home. It’s nice to change the subject when the path is slippery at home.