While commentators seem to try to hedge their bets by obfuscating, the Euro continues its surge relative to the dollar. It strikes me that this is a fundamental rebound. Then again, I’m a neophyte.

Here’s a DailyFX chart that illustrates the dramatic “V” rebound.

Have we seen the end of dollar-buying to liquidate positions in the US prior to the end of the year and prior to the Obama administration’s debut?

Also note that a significant portion of the surge in oil prices is actually tied to the exchange rate. This should begin to re-introduce inflationary pressures on the economy and counter the deflation — both real and predicted — of the past several months.

This may not be a final blow to the dollar, but it should serve as a wake-up-call that we should not expect deflation to win out in the long term, especially for imported or energy-sensitive commodities.

The question is: when will inflationary pressures of dollar printing and borrowing begin to outweigh the downward pressures introduced in real estate and retail from bankruptcies and liquidations? And what impact will negative real interest rates in the U.S. have on the dollar and the economy? Is there a window of opportunity in the next weeks or months for individuals to improve their positions before the storm actually hits in full force?

It looks like the Senate did the right thing. Now it depends on the President to do the right thing (for a change) and let the bankruptcy reorganize the companies in the courts instead of hooking up the taxpayer IVs and letting the politicians get their fingers in:

The Senate rejected the bailout 52-35 on a procedural vote — well short of the 60 required — after the talks fell apart.

“I dread looking at Wall Street,” said Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in anticipation of Friday’s stock market reaction. “It’s not going to be a pleasant sight.”

Gee, Harry, not a pleasant sight? I suspect it won’t look any worse than many of the days over the past few months. Besides, since when have you been concerned about Wall Street? I thought you were all about “the working people”?

Stock futures are down, foreign markets are down about 3%, the dollar’s regaining a little versus the Euro, and oil is retreating further. Hard to tell if it’s based on the news. Perhaps if the President announces a plan we’ll see the reaction in a lower dollar, higher oil and gold. It’s not going to be a pleasant sight…

Sharon at Casaubon’s Book blogged about how increased interest in personal gardening and farming is impacting the seed market:

Yesterday afternoon, my Fedco Seed Catalog arrived – always my personal favorite.  And on page 6, what should I see but this, in founder CR Lawn’s description of their situation:

And now seed prices.  I’ve ben 30 years in this business and these are the highest increases to us I’ve ever seen.  The ethanol boom diverting land to corn production has ahd a tremendous impocat on farm commodity prices, including vegetable seeds.  Wholesale prices for pea and bean seed are up 30-50%, for corn and squash, 20% or more.  Even so, wholesalers could not find growers for all crops so several varieties are missing from our catalog.  Horrible growing weather this summer has exacerbated the shortage.

The dramatic recovery of the dollar versus the Euro — and indeed generally against the foreign currency basket — might finally be fading.

Not only has the Euro surged higher in the past few days, but DailyFX analysts claim to have called the floor at $1.26 USDEUR with a projection of $1.60.

The exchange rate bounced several times at the1.25 level over the past seven weeks. Now it appears to be making a sustained, dramatic rally. How to defend against it?

This already means dramatically higher oil and gold prices. It’s likely to further impact everything from trade to ability to raise debt and defend against foreign acquisitions.

“If you look at where we’re going, we’re not on a sustainable course as a country,” DeMint said. “Frankly, GM is in a better financial situation than we are as a country. The only difference is we can print money. But as other countries around the world lose confidence in the value of a dollar – that’s going to come home very shortly.”

http://www.businessandmedia.org/articles/2008/20081211131911.aspx

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Revolution-food-riots-in-America-by-2012-13062-3-1.html

The man who predicted the 1987 stock market crash and the fall of the Soviet Union is now forecasting revolution in America, food riots and tax rebellions – all within four years, while cautioning that putting food on the table will be a more pressing concern than buying Christmas gifts by 2012.
Gerald Celente, the CEO of Trends Research Institute, is renowned for his accuracy in predicting future world and economic events, which will send a chill down your spine considering what he told Fox News this week.