Archive for depression

Even Dr. Doom Is Scared: Tech Ticker, Yahoo Finance

Dr. Doom is freaked out more than he was earlier!

A year ago Roubini was forecasting an 18-month recession with a U-shaped recovery; now, hes now expecting the downturn to last at least 24 months and possibly 36-months. He also sees rising risks of a Japanese-style L-shaped stagnation, i.e. a prolonged period with little or no economic growth.

“I was one of most bearish people [but] the economy has surprised the bears on the downside,” says Roubini of NYUs Stern School and RGE Monitor. “Whats happening in the world now is scary.”

via Even Dr. Doom Is Scared Economy Much Worse Than Roubini Predicted: Tech Ticker, Yahoo Finance.

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March 2, 2009 · Filed under depression, predictions, quotes

Stimulus Makes It Worse

Peter Schiff has a great interview with Yahoo’s techticker.

The fiscal stimulus bill being debated in Congress not only won’t help the economy, it will make the recession much worse, says Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital.

He argues that the “stimulus” package will make this worse. And, if you listen carefully, he says near the end that because the currency is not anchored in gold that this will be an inflationary depression, if we don’t back off and take the hard medicine now.
…the difference is that the economy is in a much worse state going into this depression than it was in the 1930s… and without the discipline of gold, we have a central bank that could create massive inflation. So we could have an inflationary depression.
During the Great Depression, prices fell. But Schiff suggests that what could happen this time is that “prices could be spiraling out of control.”
Interesting points. I wonder to what extent the foreign debt holders will force our hand to prevent that (otherwise their dollar-denominated bonds will be effectively devalued to a fraction of their value). And, if they can’t, won’t they be a little upset when their billions are now relatively worthless?

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February 6, 2009 · Filed under Economy, depression, dollar, inflation, meddling, predictions