Americans’ Standard of Living Permanently Changed: Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance

Amazing number: 19.5 square feet of selling space per American consumer!

About 220,000 stores may close this year in America, says our guest, retail consultant Howard Davidowitz of Davidowitz & Associates. As more Americans save and spend less, it’s clear there’s too much retail space. Just visit Web site deadmalls.com and track retail’s growing body count. And luxury retailers? They’re on “life support,” Davidowitz says. 

via Americans’ Standard of Living Permanently Changed: Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance.

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February 20, 2009 · Filed under bankruptcies, predictions

Schiff, Gold, and the Dow

Peter Schiff appears on the Laura Ingraham show this morning.

One of the more interesting points he makes is evaluating the value of the Dow in light of ounces of gold. When Bush took office, the Dow was roughly 42 ounces of gold. Now it’s about 9. He expects that by the time Obama leaves office, it’s likely to be around one ounce of gold in value.

He compares the attempts to “fix” the economy to attempting to recreate the debt-based house of cards.

His advice is the same that it’s been for a while, which is refreshing considering that he’s taken some heat for it recently: gold, silver, foreign currency (he calls the dollar’s recent surge a false rally), and foreign stocks and bonds.

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February 12, 2009 · Filed under euro, gold, inflation, predictions

Stimulus Makes It Worse

Peter Schiff has a great interview with Yahoo’s techticker.

The fiscal stimulus bill being debated in Congress not only won’t help the economy, it will make the recession much worse, says Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital.

He argues that the “stimulus” package will make this worse. And, if you listen carefully, he says near the end that because the currency is not anchored in gold that this will be an inflationary depression, if we don’t back off and take the hard medicine now.
…the difference is that the economy is in a much worse state going into this depression than it was in the 1930s… and without the discipline of gold, we have a central bank that could create massive inflation. So we could have an inflationary depression.
During the Great Depression, prices fell. But Schiff suggests that what could happen this time is that “prices could be spiraling out of control.”
Interesting points. I wonder to what extent the foreign debt holders will force our hand to prevent that (otherwise their dollar-denominated bonds will be effectively devalued to a fraction of their value). And, if they can’t, won’t they be a little upset when their billions are now relatively worthless?

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February 6, 2009 · Filed under Economy, depression, dollar, inflation, meddling, predictions

The Russians Are Coming! And the Chinese, Canadians, EU… and Mexico…

Russia appears to be at it with the psychological warfare again.

This time, Russian “professor” Igor Panarin is spreading FUD about the future of the United States by predicting its dissolution by 2010.

He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts, he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.

His former KGB credentials, use of FAPSI data (Russian “NSA”), and speech at an Austrian “information warfare” conference weaken the case for his objectivity.
However, it’s hard to picture things getting so bad that Americans are eager to fall under the sphere of Mexican, Chinese, or Russian influence (although I’m sure that Russia would love to “reclaim” Alaska and Mexican “reconquistas” would welcome renewed control of their “rightful” lands).
Then again, were American political will or military capability weakened, it’s not too hard to picture Russia reclaiming Alaskan territory.
Perhaps the Red Dawn remake will feature this scenario? Either way, allow me to be the first to cry “Wolverines!”

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December 29, 2008 · Filed under predictions, rivals

Saw It Coming

Gary Schilling saw it coming in 2007. What does he see coming now?

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December 22, 2008 · Filed under Economy, predictions

Causabon’s Predictions

Sharon Astyk’s called 2008 pretty well and, with a couple of quibbles, I agree with her 2009 predictions. Sadly.

I think that she might be underestimating a few things:

  • The ability of the US government to pull rabbits out of the hat. When you control the money presses and regulate the financial markets, you can do quite a bit. For a while longer.
  • The interest of foreign governments in keeping us afloat until they can untangle themselves from dollar investments.
  • The ability of banks and industry to manipulate government policy to their liking in the name of “crisis”.
  • The “new coach” mentality changing consumer sentiment. How long Obama has before people lose hope is the big question here.
I think that the big wildcards are on the foreign policy front and their impact on oil, trade, and sentiment:
  • What does China do with an economically, politically, and miliarily weakened US? It also dries up a source of revenue that’s fuelled their growth over the past decades. 
  • What does Russia do in desperation when they don’t have soaring oil revenues to compensate for “holes” in their system?
  • What happens in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran?
That said, pretty good job on her part. Sadly. I hope I can buy some arable land before it’s too late…

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December 17, 2008 · Filed under Uncategorized, predictions