The Russians Are Coming! And the Chinese, Canadians, EU… and Mexico…

Russia appears to be at it with the psychological warfare again.

This time, Russian “professor” Igor Panarin is spreading FUD about the future of the United States by predicting its dissolution by 2010.

He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts, he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.

His former KGB credentials, use of FAPSI data (Russian “NSA”), and speech at an Austrian “information warfare” conference weaken the case for his objectivity.
However, it’s hard to picture things getting so bad that Americans are eager to fall under the sphere of Mexican, Chinese, or Russian influence (although I’m sure that Russia would love to “reclaim” Alaska and Mexican “reconquistas” would welcome renewed control of their “rightful” lands).
Then again, were American political will or military capability weakened, it’s not too hard to picture Russia reclaiming Alaskan territory.
Perhaps the Red Dawn remake will feature this scenario? Either way, allow me to be the first to cry “Wolverines!”

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Oil’s Spill Creates Slippery Path for Putin

Keep an eye on Russia.

It’s been high times for the past several years with the coincident humbling of its former superpower rival and the rise of oil prices. The New Russia has been flexing its international muscle — economic, diplomatic, and military — and feeling pride about reasserting itself in a bid to regain lost glory.

Now, the fall of oil, combined with Russia’s historical instincts to stir trouble abroad when there’s trouble at home indicates a need for caution.

The precipitous decline of oil and linked weakness of the Ruble creates slippery path for Putin and Medvedev. As the WSJ points out today in “Oil’s Crash Stirs Unrest In Russia As Slump Hits Home”:

The prospect of further unrest poses what could be the biggest challenge yet to the authoritarian system built by Mr. Putin. It also foists a stark choice on the Kremlin: to stifle dissent, or to placate protesters to provide some kind of pressure outlet. For now, the Kremlin has decided on a mixture of both. But the government’s options may narrow as its financial reserves shrink.

New Russian drinking buddy Venezuela is facing similar pressures. Will they collude to cause trouble for a shaken and weakened US and a new, “untested” commander-in-chief in the coming months?

Beware. History is filled with examples of totalitarians demonizing rivals and launching foreign adventures when there’s trouble at home. It’s nice to change the subject when the path is slippery at home.

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